On the EU Referendum

This page lists blogs relating to the EU Referendum in reverse chronological order.

Post-23 June 2016

#23: Anniversary blog: ‘a change of perspective is worth 80 IQ points’ & ‘how to capture the heavens’, lessons from ARPA/PARC

#22: Some numbers for the Vote Leave campaign (PDF)

#21: Branching histories of the 2016 referendum and ‘the frogs before the storm’

#20: the campaign, physics and data science – Vote Leave’s ‘Voter Intention Collection System’ (VICS) now available for all

#19: Final message from Vote Leave HQ to our supporters

September 2015

#18: The ECJ uses the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take more power over the UK, this is just the start

#17: The state of the campaign

#16: New ICM poll shows differential turnout could be important, only a third support the failing EU project

#15: Good news, Cameron changes the question – and a new poll

August

#14: latest ICM poll

#13: new ICM poll shows growing support for Yes/In, Thucydides/morality/education/priorities

#12 New ICM poll shows 46-36 for staying in the EU; education, BBC, propaganda, Willie Munzenberg, 8 August

July

#11 New ICM poll on a second referendum idea, Boris etc, 20 July

#10 Do you want to be a hammer or an anvil? Building a team for the NO campaign, 7 July. On the nature of the organisation needed… ‘Building this organisation should have started years ago. The resources of the old anti-euro campaign should have gone into working out a roadmap for a new UK-EU treaty and building a national movement to support it. It did not happen. Resources were diverted into cul-de-sacs. It cannot be delayed further… I thought it a mistake to try to force David Cameron to hold a referendum but for those who ignored the dangers and pushed for it now to argue that ‘we must wait before we do anything’ is no good… We must focus on the interests of Britain, Europe, and the wider world – not party interests…’

#9 Cameron begins his renegotiation, the Commission sets out its timetable for new Treaty pre-2025, BJ & SJ make moves, a Greek ‘no’, 6 July

#8 Unprofessional pundit – Adam Boulton, 6 July

June

#7 Transparency for our Potemkin government – Memo to ministers and spads thinking about how you could help the NO campaign, 30 June

#6 Exit plans and a second referendum, 23 June

#5 Reports of an anti-EU advertising campaign; Greece, the euro, and predictions, 21 June

#4 An Exploratory Committee, the beginning of a NO campaign, my role 19 June

#3 The errors of Steve Richards, 3 June

May 2015

#2 The Lisbon Treaty compared with the Articles of Confederation & US Constitution, 30 May

#1 Gove and the Human Rights Act, 11 May 2015. Mainly on Gove and HRA but also some discussion of referendum: ‘I was campaign director of the campaign that opposed Britain joining the euro 1998-2002. After that, decisions by a few people meant that the momentum and structure built by that campaign was – in my opinion disastrously – destroyed. A decade in which people should have been figuring out the answers to questions like those sketched above was squandered. Too many people focused on clamouring for a referendum instead of figuring out the extreme complexities of the issues. This was all the more odd given how many Eurosceptics complain that even winning a referendum in Europe has just led to another referendum… Having mostly squandered a decade, ‘the silent artillery of time’ is on the side of the status quo.

2014

My report for Business for Britain on the dynamics of the debate over the EU, and a small but telling process point on the EU, June 2014. This report explores swing voter opinion on the arguments for and against the EU. It also touches on perceptions of the parties and the leaders. It describes what I regard as a frequent error among the commentariat concerning the psychology of ‘swing voters’. This blog also has a Times op-ed on Europe attached at the bottom.

The Hollow Men Part I: the long view, June 2014. This blog considered a long view of elite British decision-making from the 1860s to now – the confusion about how to deal with Bismarck, the very similar confusion about how to deter Germany pre-1914 and pre-1939, our entry to the EEC and so on. It was not written with the referendum much in mind but it is relevant to it.

One thought on “On the EU Referendum

  1. Dear Mr Cummings, whatever you are doing in not bringing together the OUT campaigns together, can you please reconcile the differences with the other group, this is so important

    If we are to achieve the goal of breaking away from EU we need one BIG VOICE, not a couple of groups that the Eurocrats can use any animosity that exists against us

    Like

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